Modi Gaya Rally
Narendra Modi Shifts Momentum in Bihar: Jitters in Janata Parivar

In continuation of the IndiaFacts series on the upcoming Bihar assembly election, we can now…

In continuation of the IndiaFacts series on the upcoming Bihar assembly election, we can now examine the battle that increasingly looks fierce and promising. The consensus of most political observers is that it promises to be a neck to neck contest where each vote will count.

These are still early days, but the ground assessment from different districts tell a different story.

There seems to be a formidable level of anti-incumbency in Bihar, reflected by some reckless moves of CM Nitish Kumar in the last couple of weeks, which suggests all is not well for Janata Parivar.

On the other hand, PM Narendra Modi is all set to change the momentum in favor of NDA. His last two rallies in Muzaffarpur and Gaya has left Nitish Kumar in big trouble.

If you remember the early days of Sachin Tendulkar’s opening batting in One-day matches, he used to kill the confidence of the opponent in the very first few overs, and then dominate the game.

Taking benefit of Nitish’s visceral animosity towards him, the big thing Modi managed to do through the Muzzafarpur rally was to inflict a psychological blow on Nitish’s campaign confidence. Nitish is still stuck in finding an appropriate response.

Narendra Modi Muzaffarpur Rally

Narendra Modi Muzaffarpur Rally

It leaves me clueless, wondering who suggested Nitish Kumar to write a public letter to Modi on his DNA remark. Most likely it came in the wake of signals from Nitish’s campaign managers that he is slipping.

Nitish was given a warning that none of his ‘Vikas Card’ and ‘Caste Matrix’ is working. It was an attempt to fire up the faltering Nitish campaign that was lifted straight from 2007 Gujarati Asmita strategy. The intention was to ignite the so called Bihari pride in the same way Modi turned tables on Sonia in the 2007 Gujarat elections.

Not surprisingly, the BJP responded with a scathing charge that “arrogance, betrayal, conspiracy and deceit” are the ABCD of Nitish Kumar’s politics. They accused him of shamelessly distorting Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s words for petty political gains, and it backfired on Nitish Kumar.

Nitish Kumar’s desperation did not end there.

Despite all the ‘so called secular’ parties in an alliance, Nitish tabled the NN Singh Commission’s Report on Bhagalpur riots after 25 years in the assembly.

Nitish must thank the Congress-friendly mainstream media that opted to be silent on it.

The Report indicts the then Congress Government and it was during Lalu Yadav’s rule that the rioters were acquitted. It was a huge tactical mistake and has every potential to backfire since there was no justice and rehabilitation for survivors in 25 years of RJD/JDU rule.

Janata Parivar junior partner, Lalu Yadav has more reasons to worry. He is not scared of Modi or BJP or Nitish, but NOTA. Many diehard Yadav supporters have warned RJD cadre that they would rather choose NOTA over voting for the secular alliance.

Nitish is also aware of these developments and is in constant thought of dumping RJD, which has now become a bone stuck in his neck. No wonder there was not a single poster of the Janata Parivar that features Lalu Yadav: it all begins and ends with Nitish.

On every social forum and door to door campaign, people are asking JDU volunteers, “Why did you ally with Lalu Yadav”? It is shifting a lot of progressive voters across all ages and castes towards the NDA. But it is the chunk of Muslim votes that is holding them together for now.

There is still confusion in seat sharing between Janata Parivar constituents. While an ETV news report says that the JDU would contest all 115 seats it won last time, JDU state President, Bhasisht Narayan confirms that the JDU-RJD alliance would contest 105 seats each with a few adjustments to it. I am surprised Nitish Kumar is not even contesting half of the total number of seats.

The less we talk about the Congress the better. The Congress rejected the 30-seats offer of JDU-RJD and threatened to go all alone if at least 50 seats were not given.

That is fine but finding 243 candidates agreeing to contest on Congress ticket would be a tough task in Bihar. We can be sure to witness how the coalition partners and the people of Bihar will show Sonia-Rahul their rightful place.

Bhagalpur Riots

Bhagalpur Riots

Wary of a resurgent BJP, Nitish is trying to woo the CPI to join his ‘Mahagatbandhan’ and offered them six seats to contest. It would be interesting to see if the CPI breaks ranks with other Left parties.

More trouble is headed towards the Janata Parivar through surveys and opinion polls. IBTL, which has a decent record of predicting electoral outcomes, puts the NDA slightly ahead of Parivar with a seat projection of NDA – 119, RJS – 117 and others 7. Another opinion conducted in early August gives NDA-120 Janata Parivar-110 Left+Others-13 suggesting that the NDA is heading towards a clear majority.

It is surprising that the usually anti-BJP media has started to concede Bihar.

In the Indian News Bihar survey, 65 percent voters say law and order has worsened after Nitish and Lalu came together, and 59 percent say the Modi magic will work in this election.

The recent incident of the murder of the BJP councilor, Avinash Kumar in broad daylight will further fuel this belief. Going by these predictions, it seems an anti-Nitish wave is building up, and the JDU is on its way out of power in Bihar. But it is still too early to predict.

In another development, despite strong resentment against Prashant Kishore in the JDU camp itself, Nitish is backing him because he depends on him heavily.

But none of Prashant Kishore’s copy-pasted slogans with the life-sized posters showing Nitish’s face is working anymore. Badh Chala Bihar, Phir Ek Baar Nitish Kumar or Bihar Me Bahaar Ho, Nitish Kumar Ho or the latest one in the series, Jhanse Me Na Aaenge, Nitish Ko Jitayenge are all the IPAC’s handiwork. Other activities include Parcha-Pe-Charcha and Ghar-Ghar-Dastak, where the JDU leadership interacts with the electorate.

As someone very aptly tweeted: “Looks like its Modi vs. copying Modi’s past electoral strategies in Bihar”.

Nitish Kumar’s Badh Chala Bihar campaign has lost steam in just one month.

Before the Legislative Council elections, the BJP alleged a violation of the moral code of conduct and the EC had imposed a ban on the program.  Once again, the High Court objected to the state leadership’s involvement in the Badh Chala Bihar campaign.

But the primary reason for its failure is understood to be government officials (through whom it was pushed) not believing in the re-election of the Nitish Government. In the ‘Har ghar dastak’ campaign, people are asking straight questions like “You promised us electricity where is it?”

It looks like Nitish’s campaign peaked very early and right now nothing is working in his favor, and this blitzkrieg campaign has hallmarks of disastrous ‘India Shining’ all over it.

The NDA campaign started very late but seems to have peaked at the right time.

Amit Shah has divided the state into four structural sectors. All four of Modi’s pre-poll public rallies are also being organized at the behest of this sector wise electoral management.

For the first time, the BJP has put in such a well-structured and coordinated effort. The BJP’s cutting-edge campaign technology has developed a reporting app to track the location of state leaders and campaign raths. The party is using drones, GPS, reporting apps in the campaign as Shah goes all out to wrest Bihar from Nitish.

The BJP is playing both safe and extra careful, seeking extensive ground level feedback on candidates and filtering out unwanted candidates, those who have no support base but just contacts with top leaders.

BJP President Amit Shah

BJP President Amit Shah

The NDA partners are looking like a cohesive group a big challenge for them in the past. Ram Vilas Paswan is a seasoned politician and has made it clear at the beginning that he is not going to be the CM candidate. Despite being infamous for all the wrong kinds of news, Jitan Ram Manjhi is also emerging as a tall leader of the Mahadalits, especially in the Magadh Region of Bihar.

Sensing the public response, the BJP has planned to accommodate a few more of Narendra Modi’s public rallies. The entire NDA worked as a team for almost a week in the run up to Narendra Modi’s Gaya Parivartan Rally, which turned out to be the real game-changer event.

If you wanted to see a wave changing into a tsunami, you should have been in Gaya on 9 August and witnessed the ‘Parivartan Rally’.

The local police and administration suggest that more than four lakh people were inside Gandhi Maidan, Gaya, and almost equal number outside. I never imagined that Narendra Modi is still so incredibly popular, and that it would be the biggest rally ever in Gaya despite being a Lalu Yadav stronghold and having strong Naxal warnings.

Seizing the moment, Narendra Modi changed gears and delivered a highly positive and unsparingly scathing speech and changed both the direction and momentum of the NDA’s campaign.

He started by mentioning the glorious past of Bihar and its present state, If one reads between the lines, he was suggesting that this once mighty Magadha Samrajya is today begging for special status.

He stressed on how intelligent Bihari youths are being forced to go outside for studies and jobs. Millions of youth aged between 17 and 20 struggle for merely 25000 engineering seats which compels five lakh plus students to migrate every year.

This time Modi had some special words reserved for Lalu Yadav and reminded his audience of the dark days of Jungle Raj of his rule. He destroyed Lalu Yadav by saying that “Jungle Raj Part 2 after the jail experience (of Lalu) will be more vicious than Part 1.”

He talked about Gaya’s tourism potential that is as big as the Taj Mahal of Agra, but the Bihar Government’s apathy to Infrastructure and Law and Order not letting it flourish.

Narendra Modi asked Biharis to elect a government that will work in harmony with the Central government for the state’s speedy development. He promised with a definite timeline, “It took ten years to pull Madhya Pradesh out of the BIMARU state (when a non-cooperating Government was at Center)” but that he will “pull out Bihar in five years.”

Almost every journalist is now conceding that Modi’s Gaya rally was a mammoth success and reflects Bihar’s mood: change.

Nitish Kumar

Nitish Kumar

As his record shows, Narendra Modi doesn’t respond to allegations, but sets the agenda and makes others respond to his.

Nitish Kumar who was left nervous after Modi’s Muzaffarpur rally, expectedly went berserk after Gaya. The same Nitish Kumar who extols the backwardness of Bihar as a plank to ask for Special Status has a problem with the BIMARU tag. He is so rattled that he had to resort to 2002 and Mandal. The more Nitish reacts to Modi rallies, the more he concedes ground.

Nitish Kumar is no longer confident of a win in Bihar.

Contrary to his earlier strategy, a hurried plan has been made to hold the first mega joint rally in Patna with allies on 29 August. Invites have been sent to Arvind Kejriwal and Shibu Soren.

The spectacle of Nitish holding hands with Sonia Gandhi, Lalu Yadav, and Sharad Pawar would be priceless. My understanding of Bihar’s mood says that it will put the final nail in Janata Parivar’s electoral coffin.

By the looks of it so far, it appears to be another wave election in Bihar. Whereas the Lalu-Nitish combine has the caste arithmetic with them, the momentum is clearly with NDA, and the Modi Wave would be enough to win the election.

The battle has truly begun now.

  • Vishwas

    Bihar, then UP – Rajya Sabha problem solved! Real development can only then be seen, Say, from 2017 onwards – paving a grand Modi wave in 2020 – opposition only for name sake. But then fear arrogance!

  • Indian

    His holding hands of ITALIAN MAFIOSI SONIA whose loyalties to India are extreme suspect, BJP should use VHP to relentlessly AND ruthlessly bring to the fore, the VATI-CUNT BOKO HARAMI Congress and its ANTI HINDU RAPE and Brothel Culture and support for PORNOGRAPHY, the main business of the ITALIAN NAZI Congis.RAPE OF INDIAN WOMEN by the filthy white skinned Italian Pigs and making India a Phillipines for sake of whites. The poisoning of children to sell their Organs should be relentlessly rubbed in with tons of salt. Bringing in Commie Pigs will be a Pig Plus for BJP if it rubs savagley the 1947, 1962, 1977, 1998 (WHEN TRAITOR COMMIE PIGS AND SONIA XIAN BOKO HARAM NEXUS voted out ABV Govt, just by one vote, THAT OF ITALIAN SONIA, 3 months after India becoming a Nuclear Power) and attacking sonia and commie dogs on that. Caste equations can be easily broken by reminding people of Bihar, specially Dalits and Poor OBCs that IT WAS LALU SUPPORTED SONIA XIAN BOKO HARAM RULE, which provided Rs 30000 Crore scholarships to “minorities” including filthy rich and traitor Xians (Commie Italian Pot Licker Sachhar) while leaving Poor Dalits and OBCs OUT. SONIA AND LALU should become a albatross for Nitish. THE ISSUE OF LAND GRABBING BY SLUMDOG BANGLADESHI ILLEGALS SHOULD BE MADE A STRONG ISSUE, AS MUSLIM VOTES WILL ANYWAY NOT BE THERE

  • Shubhangi Raykar

    What about the stupidity of collecting DNA samples of Biharis? Nitish Kumar’s DNA was referred to not as a Bihari but as a traitor. He has deliberately given it a twist. Why don’t BJP candidates clarify the deceitful twist given by Nitish K

  • Ashok Jaisinghani

    *****What is the POLITICAL DNA of Narendra Modi?***** 
       Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been ABSOLUTELY WRONG in making fun of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s POLITICAL DNA. Why has he ignored Nitish Kumar’s EXCELLENT administrative abilities? 
       Can Narendra Modi tell us what his POLITICAL DNA is? Was Modi’s father any POLITICAL LEADER? We all know that Narendra Modi is from a FAMILY of CHAIWALLAHS!! Without getting any POLITICAL DNA from his FAMILY, why did Narendra Modi fight in the Gujarat Assembly elections to become the state’s Chief Minister? Later, why did he fight in the Lok Sabha elections of 2014 to become the Prime Minister of India? 
    *****Rahul Gandhi has the “BEST” POLITICAL DNA, as he is the son of Rajiv Gandhi, grandson of Indira Gandhi and great grandson of Jawaharlal Nehru, all of whom had been the Prime Ministers of India.***** 
       So, without having any POLITICAL DNA himself, why did Narendra Modi do everything to prevent Rahul Gandhi from becoming the Prime Minister of India? Narendra Modi knows that Rahul Gandhi has the HIGHEST POLITICAL DNA!! Will Narendra Modi resign from the post of Prime Minister and offer it to Rahul Gandhi just because the latter has the HIGHEST POLITICAL DNA?
    *****If we consider Narendra Modi’s POLITICAL GODFATHERS, we should remember that he has KICKED OUT all of them from the TOP POSITIONS of POWER in the BJP!!*****  

    • Shubhangi Raykar

      You are distorting the statement. He was just hinting at Nitish pulling out of alliance because of his dislike for Modi and his ambition to become PM

    • Indian

      What is your DNA mr convert Xian Traitor, who lives in India, eats in India, but fuels terrorism in India under the Orders of that Butcher of Vati-Cunt and its Plant, come with your f…king REAL BAPTIST Name . You bloody traitors, products of keeps of British, Portuguese, French and unknown ancestors, terrorism first started in India by Xian Churchians in NE and the Vicious Toxic Butcher of Vat-Cunt. The mistake we made is not throwing the spit of European invaders back to where they belong. Anyway your name itself suggest where you belong to. By the way Italy does not even think you fit to make you a gutter cleaner of white Italian shit, which you love eating. CHAIWALA is better than a BARDANCER AND ITS RANDEES..GO TO MADAM. YOU ANYWAY HAVE THE HIGHEST DNA OF A COBRA NEEEEEEE

      • Rajnesh Sharma Chandigarh


  • Vivek

    NiKu contesting less seats (100) than what he won (117) in last election is it self a huge DEFEAT for him. Dint expect him to loose so much ground that too for a ‘convicted criminal’ Lalu who is just out on bail. And his conviction is not cancelled unlike Jaya’s case.

    Even if Niku wins, will he be as strong as how he was during NDA? and run state smoothly. BJP was an ally who added strength to his governance. Will ‘convicted criminal’ Lalu allow him to run corruption less government?

  • krishnakumar

    In Delhi, it was reported that BJP team was complacent. Sh.Shwetak Bhushan himself has complained about complacency of BJP team in a earlier article published in this forum. However, from the tone and tenor of this article, it is learnt that an enthusiastic BJP team is working on the ground. In MSM and social media, even many of the reporters who are perceived to be hostile to BJP echoes the same sentiment. Good to hear that.
    Today’s Times of India reported that Janata Parivar has agreed on seat sharing 100 seats each for JDU and RJD, 40 seats to congress and 3 seats to NCP. The report further went on to say that prince rahul is sooo happy to get a bounty of 40 seats to fight in Bihar. If thats the case, it would be earlier the better that NDA strikes a deal.
    Music to NDA and worry to Janta parivar is communal owaisi is planning to fight the elections in Bihar and would be cutting the fundamentalist moslems votes. Atleast, this would ensure prevent enbloc voting of fundamentalist moslems.
    So far so good. lets hope for the best. man mein hai vishwas. pura hai vishwas. Hum honge kamyab.

    • Indian


  • Bhuvan

    So be it.

    • Pratyush